March 1 (Reuters) – Following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, many senior U.S. officials remain skeptical that the U.S. and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to a regime change in the near term.
Before and after the start of the attack, U.S. officials, including U.S. President Donald Trump, had suggested that toppling the nation’s repressive governing system was one of several U.S. goals, in addition to crippling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
“I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment … and take back your country,” Trump said on Sunday in a video posted on Truth Social.
But three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious skepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can topple the theocratic, authoritarian governing system that has been in place since 1979.
No officials consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran’s government, which currently is buffeted by key personnel losses from ongoing U.S. and Israeli air strikes and is deeply unpopular following a January round of extraordinarily violent repression.
But it is far from likely or even probable in the near term, they said.
Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the Iran attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hard-line clerics, two sources said.
One U.S. official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to voluntarily capitulate in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.
The CIA assessments followed at least one report from a separate U.S. intelligence agency which noted that there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
Such defections would likely be a precondition of any successful revolution, according to three additional sources. Those sources requested that the specific intelligence agency not be named.
All of the sources Reuters spoke with for this story requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.
Trump himself said on Sunday he planned to reopen communications with Iran, suggesting Washington does not see the government going anywhere, at least in the immediate term.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while the CIA declined to comment.
LOTS OF DEBATE, LESS CONSENSUS
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a leadership council composed of himself, the judiciary head and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of Supreme Leader.
Security chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to plunder and disintegrate Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they attempted any action, state television said on Sunday, after the two countries launched a wave of air attacks on Iran that included the bombing of a girls’ primary school. Reuters could not independently confirm the reports from the state media.
The U.S. intelligence discussions about the implications of a possible Khamenei killing have not been limited to whether it might lead to a change in government leadership.
Two of the U.S. officials said that, since January, there has been significant debate – but no consensus – among officials of various agencies about the extent to which Khamenei’s killing would lead to a significant shift in the way Iran approached negotiations with the U.S. regarding its nuclear program.
U.S. officials have also debated the extent to which Khamenei’s death or ouster would deter the country from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capacities, said those officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conversations.
Following the January protests, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and a key ally, spoke several times with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, raising questions about the extent to which the administration would support his installment should Iran’s government fall, two officials said.
But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly pessimistic that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country, those officials added.
“At the end of the day, once U.S. and Israeli strikes stop, if the Iranian people come out, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on the rank and file standing aside or aligning with them,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
“Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those with the weapons, are likely to use them to keep power.”
(Reporting by Gram Slattery in Murren, Switzerland, and Erin Banco in New York; Editing by Don Durfee)