A new ad from Troy Jackson’s campaign in Maine’s high-profile and heavily-contested battle with GOP Sen. Susan Collins focuses on control of the Senate, arguing her victory would empower President Donald Trump.
“It all comes down to Maine. It comes down to us. If we send Susan Collins back to Washington, Trump has a majority in the Senate,” the ad’s narrators, a collection of seemingly everyday Mainers, say at the start of the 30-second ad. “He’ll have total control again.”
The ad’s clear intent: Staunch defections among Democrats and independents in the state’s Trump-loathing electorate.
The ad comes with less than two weeks before Election Day; Jackson, a onetime logger who rose to become Maine’s Senate president has a narrow lead in polling averages and most forecasters consider the race a toss-up, though elections guru Nate Silver’s model gives him a roughly 70% chance of victory.
Emphasizing the stakes of Senate control could help Jackson win over voters who don’t approve of Trump and the GOP but are nonetheless won over by Collins’ record of relative moderation and power in Congress. A Washington Post survey released earlier this month found Jackson with a 50% to 46% lead, but with voters preferring Democrats control the Senate by a 55% to 42% margin.
Democrats’ success in competing in redder states, including Iowa and Kansas, has opened up more possibilities for them to win control of the Senate while losing Maine. But victory in the state, which Vice President Kamala Harris won by seven percentage points, is still part of all of their most likely paths to 51 or more Senate seats.
The ad notes Collins has voted with Trump 96% of the time, and suggests sending her back to Washington would lead “to more cuts to health care, higher costs and more war.”
“We all know a vote for Susan Collins is a vote for Trump,” the ad concludes.