CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten declared Tuesday that he’s “really, really surprised” by the unpopularity of Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” as Senate Republicans look to pass it before the president’s Fourth of July deadline.
Enten, in a segment with CNN’s Sara Sidner, turned to the bill’s “underwater” net favorable rating (percent in favor minus percent not in favor), which sits at -29 points and -26 points in two separate polls.
“Oh my God! You need Greg Louganis to get that far underwater,” said Enten, referring to the Olympic gold medal-winning diver.
He noted that the average net favorable rating among independents is an even lower figure (-41 points).
“You rarely ever see pieces of legislation or proposed pieces of legislation as unpopular as this,” he said.
Enten pointed to an aggregate of polls showing an average of 23% of Republicans held an unfavorable view of Trump’s bill, a figure that more than doubles that of the president’s unfavorable rating with the GOP (9%).
“All of a sudden you’re taking a huge chunk of that MAGA base, of that Republican base, that has turned against this bill,” he said. “It is not just Elon Musk, it is not just Ron Johnson, the Senate Republican from Wisconsin. It is a large chunk of the Republican base.”
Enten said the bill’s poor performance among Republicans is rare among “anything” backed by Trump.
He went on to note the net favorable rating of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts (-17 points) prior to the 2018 midterms when Republicans lost the House.
Trump’s bill — which passed in the House last month and looks to include deeper Medicaid cuts under proposals by Senate Republicans — has a net favorable rating of -28 points, per Enten’s aggregate.
“So, if this is the ‘big, beautiful bill,’ it may be a ‘big, beautiful bill’ for Democrats if it passes because they’ll have a big, beautiful night come midterm night of 2026,” he predicted.