CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Monday emphasized that the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas looks “so much different” this year as the Democratic Party sees its “best looking” polling in around four decades.
“This could be very, very real. Democrats have a real shot in Texas,” said Enten of a statewide election that was last won by the party’s nominee in 1988.
Democratic nominee and state Rep. James Talarico is up by three points over GOP nominee and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, per the results of a Fox News poll shared on Thursday.
That’s a noteworthy shift from July 2018 when, according to a Quinnipiac poll, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) held a six-point lead over then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) in that year’s race.
Enten revealed that independents are “supercharging” Talarico in the recent poll.
Independents were split on Cruz and O’Rourke in 2018.
This year? Talarico has a commanding lead of +39 points with the cohort.
Enten — when asked how Cruz, who ultimately won reelection in the close 2018 race, differs from Paxton — said the Texas AG is “not popular at all,” adding, “That is, I think, one of the biggest differences in this race.”
Cruz’s net favorability hit +8 points in July 2018 while Paxton waded six points underwater, per Quinnipiac and Fox News’ polls.
“No wonder that you’re seeing major issues for Ken Paxton in this race so far,” Enten said.
President Donald Trump could be “supercharging” the Democratic Party’s possibilities in red states, too, the data chief speculated.
Trump — who recently suffered his worst approval rating in a CNN poll since the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack — held a net popularity of -9 points in the Lone Star State last month. That’s a six point drop from his net popularity in July 2018.
Trump won Texas by double digits during the 2024 election, the first Republican presidential nominee to do so in over a decade.
