CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Thursday spotted how Texas Republicans’ Donald Trump-backed redistricting effort could backfire due to the president’s sinking polling with Latinos in the state. (Watch his analysis below.)
“If the bet is on Texas Latinos to stay in the Republican camp like they did in 2024, that is a bet that they may not, in fact, be able to cash in on at this point,” said Enten in a segment with CNN’s John Berman.
Enten noted that Republicans are banking on Trump’s gains with Latinos to hold in the midterms, adding that a number of the redrawn districts are predominantly Hispanic.
He turned to polling showing how Trump’s net favorable rating (percent in favor minus percent not in favor) with Texas Latinos has “absolutely fallen through the floor,” dropping from 0 in October 2024 to -32 today.
“They may have bit off a bit more than they can chew,” he said of Republicans, adding that the drop in Texas mirrors what’s happening nationwide.
Trump’s net approval rating has also soured with the demographic when it comes to his handling of the economy.
In October 2024, Trump — when matched up against former Vice President Kamala Harris — held a +9 net approval rating with Texas Latinos.
Today, that figure has cratered to -40, with Enten stressing that drop is a nearly “50 point switcheroo.”
“They have absolutely turned on Donald Trump on the economy. And that is a big reason why they have turned on Donald Trump overall,” Enten said of the demographic.
He later continued, “I’m not sure this redistricting plan will work out quite the way they hope it will.”