The market has grown from its roots in elections into sports, economic data and short-term price bets. Robinhood entered the business through a partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, and has since made event contracts a growing part of its trading platform.
The expansion comes as sports contracts face legal challenges from state gambling regulators, raising questions about how much of that market will remain available.
Financial contracts could offer another source of growth.
Mackenzie said Robinhood’s largest event contract in September wasn’t tied to sports but to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, reflecting growing interest in economic events.
Traders are also moving toward shorter contracts, particularly in crypto, where some products now settle in as little as 15 minutes.
“It started off with a week. It’s moved to a day, and now we’re down to 15 [minutes],” he said.
Asked about the risks, he compared 15-minute crypto contracts to zero-day options, which expire on the same trading day. Both can produce rapid losses, though their structures differ.
For Robinhood, prediction markets are also becoming a way to bring customers into its other businesses. Mackenzie said users who arrive at the trade event contracts often begin exploring stocks, cryptocurrencies, futures and options. Some also discover the platform’s individual retirement accounts.