The monthslong fight by legislators to ban the social media app TikTok in the United States came to a head on Friday when the Supreme Court heard arguments to decide the app’s fate for its 170 million American users.
While the justices across the ideological spectrum asked tough questions of both sides, the overall tone and thrust appeared to suggest greater skepticism toward the arguments by lawyers for TikTok and its users that the First Amendment barred Congress from enacting the law.
If TikTok, owned by the Chinese company ByteDance, does get banned on Jan. 19, here is what users can expect to happen:
Will TikTok still be available to download on app stores?
No. The law passed by Congress last year would make it illegal for app stores from companies like Apple and Google to distribute or issue updates to TikTok at the risk of hefty civil penalties: $5,000 per American user, which could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.
If TikTok is banned, it will likely disappear from app stores overnight. (Apple and Google have not commented on their plans to remove the app.)
Apple has long complied with foreign governments that have ordered apps to be removed in their countries. Last April, for instance, Apple pulled communication apps like WhatsApp, Signal, Threads and Telegram from its app store in China at the request of the Chinese government.
Will the TikTok app still be on my phone if I have already downloaded it?
Yes. The law does not make it illegal to have the TikTok app on your phone.
“The letter of the law is about future downloads and updates,” said Dean Ball, a research fellow with the Mercatus Center, a think tank out of George Mason University. “It’s not about taking the app off people’s phones.”
But without the ability for ByteDance to issue updates to TikTok via app stores, the app will likely degrade over time. Still, advertisers are anticipating some usage in the United States after the ban, and as of last month, new contracts to advertise on the app are still being signed, said Craig Atkinson, the chief executive of Code3, a digital marketing agency.
TikTok may also intervene before the app degrades and block its users in the United States from having access to videos on the platform after Jan. 19.
In India, which banned TikTok in 2020, users of the app are met with a screen that says “Service not available” and blocks users from its platform.
TikTok has not said if it will limit access to the app if it is banned, and did not respond to a request for comment.
Would TikTok still be accessible from an internet browser?
No. Along with banning app store companies from hosting the app, the law applies to internet hosting companies.
It is likely, however, that users will still have access to TikTok if they use a virtual private network, or VPN, which encrypts a user’s location.
The ban “might even be a major business boost for VPN providers,” Mr. Atkinson said.
Could President-elect Donald J. Trump intervene and save the app?
Some experts believe it is possible that Apple and Google could decide to not comply with the law, betting that President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has come out in support of TikTok, would direct his attorney general not to enforce it.
“But unless there’s some new information that gets added to the equation, I would be very surprised if Apple and Google did that,” Mr. Ball said.
Mr. Trump could also change his mind, or even use the threat of enforcing the law as leverage against the two companies, said JB Ferguson, a managing director at Capstone focused on technology.
“I don’t know that you are appropriately defending shareholder value if you don’t take the law seriously, even if you believe Trump,” Mr. Ferguson said of Apple and Google.