Bitcoin (BTC ($106,920.00)) rose to $107,000 from $100,000 at the beginning of the week following news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
While there is uncertainty in the market about which direction BTC will move next, Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum, made important statements.
Speaking to CoinDesk, Katalin Tischhauser argued that Bitcoin is unlikely to crash without unexpected black swan events like the Terra or FTX crash.
Arguing that there will be a long-term bull cycle unless such a black swan event occurs, Tischhauser said:
“The crypto market is strongly sentiment-driven. Therefore, technical analysis signals such as double tops warrant caution.
However, a full-fledged collapse needs a swansong like the Terra collapse or the FTX explosion in 2022.
Barring a similar black swan, we could see a prolonged bull cycle based on current political and regulatory support and sticky institutional capital flowing in.”
Double Top Risk in Bitcoin!
Bitcoin has been stuck between $100,000 and $110,000 in recent weeks, prompting analysts to speculate that Bitcoin’s uptrend is exhausted and that the trend could reverse to a bearish double-top pattern.
The double top formation is interpreted as a sign that prices will switch from an uptrend to a downtrend.
At this point, analysts like Katalin Tischhauser and Peter Brandt think that Bitcoin could form a double top pattern above $100,000.
But Tischhauser also thinks a major crash is unlikely unless there is a black swan event like the one in 2022.
Although such a big drop seems unlikely for BTC, if a double top pattern forms, it could mean that BTC could fall 75% from its peak to $27,000.
At this point, Peter Brandt pointed out in an analysis he made at the beginning of the month the potential for a double top pattern to form and a 75% correction to occur. According to the pattern, a double top at $ 110,000 was taken as the basis, and a low level of $ 75,000 was taken before the second top. In this context, according to analysts, if BTC breaks below $ 75,000, this means that a double top pattern has formed and could lead to a 75% drop from the peak.
*This is not investment advice.
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