TOPEKA, Kansas (AP) — Senate Republicans’ top campaign spending organization is pulling back in North Carolina and pouring money into Kansas, a striking shift that shows how the party’s plan to keep its majority has turned into an increasingly defensive fight ahead of November’s midterms.
The decision by the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with top Senate Republicans, was disclosed Friday by four people with direct knowledge of the situation who insisted on anonymity to discuss internal strategy.
The shifting resources signal a lack of confidence that Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman who was President Donald Trump’s choice to run for Senate in North Carolina, can beat Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper.
“I am worried about him,” Trump told reporters Friday as he was departing for a campaign rally in Alabama. “I hope he wins.”
The moves offer a stark sign of how dramatically the Senate map has shifted just a month before midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Republicans entered the cycle believing they had more opportunities to flip Democratic-held seats than they had incumbents at serious risk. Now they are dumping money into states where Trump won comfortably two years ago.
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican seeking a second term, is facing a challenge from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, the leader of the nation’s largest United Methodist Church. The Senate Leadership Fund has reserved nearly $8.2 million in advertising to support Marshall over the next month, according to AdImpact, a significant investment in a state Trump won by nearly 16 percentage points in the last presidential election.
Marshall has reserved another $2.3 million and is supported by another $500,000 from other groups. By comparison, Hamilton has reserved just $590,000 in advertising, and he’s receiving only a little more than $556,000 in outside help.
Warning Signs For Republican Incumbent In Kansas
Marshall won his first Senate race by more than 11 percentage points in 2020, the year Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump for president. However, higher fuel costs and other economic concerns have made the state more competitive than Republicans had expected.
“Kansas farmers — including Republicans — are devastated by the war in Iran driving up diesel prices,” said Jeanna Repass, chair of the Kansas Democratic Party.
Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden, a Republican, announced Friday that he was endorsing Hamilton. He is the second Republican former governor of Kansas to back the Democrat, after Bill Graves endorsed Hamilton on Sept. 23.
Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, the Democrats’ spending arm, said in a statement that “Republicans are scrambling because they know” Hamilton can win.
Marshall’s campaign did not provide comment directly responding to the new spending on his behalf.
Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, acknowledged Wednesday that “Kansas is a very competitive state.” He said he expects Marshall to win but it will be “closer than I want it to be.”
Hamilton Is Giving Democrats Hope
A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932 and hasn’t come within 10 points since 1974.
Last week in Topeka, scores of people packed into a coffee shop to see Hamilton. Dozens more waited outside on the sidewalk.
Ryan Verthein, a 40-year-old Topeka resident who repairs guitars and vintage electronics, plans to support Hamilton and considers himself a Democrat after years as an unaffiliated voter.
Kansas City Star via Getty Images
He’s concerned that Republicans could drag Hamilton down with political attacks.
“The negativity in Republican campaigning has done really well for them the past many years,” he said.
Ellen Johnson, 42, the lead organizer for Indivisible Topeka, a group involved in anti-Trump rallies, tends to like more progressive candidates than Hamilton, but he won her over.
“I have high hopes for him,” she said.
Democratic state Rep. Alexis Simmons of Topeka said she believes that Hamilton can win, saying “my skepticism is gone.” She was energized by what she saw as a strong performance during Hamilton’s debate with Marshall on Sept. 12 at the Kansas State Fair.
“He’s responsive to the public and has done a good job of reflecting Kansas values of hard work, humility and kindness in his policies,” she said.
Senate Republicans Lose Faith In North Carolina
The Senate Leadership Fund had planned to spend $18 million in North Carolina over the next month, according to reservations tracked by AdImpact. The group has already spent about $32 million there.
Trump campaigned with Whatley last month, saying higher fuel prices were “a very inexpensive price to pay” for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Though gas prices are near historic highs, they remain below the nationwide record set in 2022.
Trump won North Carolina by just over 3 percentage points in 2024. Republicans have held both of the state’s Senate seats since 2015, even as Cooper won two terms as governor and served from 2017 to 2025.
Jeff Allen, campaign manager for Cooper, said in a statement that they remain focused on “building a campaign to earn every vote.”
Whatley’s team defended his chances.
“We feel confident we have the resources to highlight Career Politician Roy Cooper’s 40 Years of Failures and win in November,” campaign spokesman DJ Griffin said in a statement.
There’s more trouble for the party further south in Georgia. Although Republicans were eager to dislodge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff this year, they’re despairing about the chances of their nominee in the race, U.S. Rep. Mike Collins.
“I don’t think he’s got much of a shot,” Tim Waters, Peach County Republican Party chair, previously said.
It Won’t Be Easy For Democrats
Winning the Senate majority could still prove difficult for Democrats. They would need to defeat multiple Republican incumbents in states like Ohio, Maine and Alaska, and there are some concerns that Democrats could fall short in New Hampshire.
The party is also facing a tidal wave of Republican cash, much of it connected to Trump’s deep-pocketed political organization.
Semafor was first to report the shift in spending from North Carolina and Kansas.
Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa, and Cappelletti reported from Washington. Steve Peoples in New York and Lisa Mascaro and Collin Binkley in Washington contributed to this report.