It appears to be smooth sailing for the labor market as summer approaches, even if that horizon line isn’t very far out.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the government’s monthly jobs report on Friday to show that employers added 190,000 workers in May. That would be a moderate step down from the 242,000-job average of the prior six months — pending revisions — as the nation arrives at something that looks like a new normal.
“There’s a strong case to be made that this thing will keep on chugging,” said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. “As the months keep going by here, the consensus is drifting toward a longer-run steady-state labor market.”
The unemployment rate has drifted up to 3.9 percent in April from 3.4 percent a year earlier. Wage growth has slowed markedly, especially for lower-income workers, but remains stronger than recent historical averages.
Adding to the balanced picture: In April, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers declined to prepandemic levels after peaking at more than two to one in early 2022. Employers aren’t hiring very quickly, but they’re not laying many people off, and workers are less likely to quit their jobs than they were in 2019.
Barring an unexpectedly low number for May hiring, the data is unlikely to affect the Federal Reserve’s decision next week on interest rates.
“We are either at or getting close to a point where the Fed doesn’t want to see any further deterioration” in the labor market, Mr. Pugliese said. Rather, he said, policymakers will focus on progress in suppressing inflation.