President Donald Trump praised his administration’s economic performance in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, claiming that “costs are coming way down.”
“I inherited very, very high costs, and they’re all coming down now,” he told Fox News anchor Trace Gallagher. “The food, the groceries, it’s all coming down. We’ve done a great job. You know, I think we should be given an A+ on the economy. But I think that’s coming; people are starting to talk about it.”
Trump’s focus on grocery prices echoes his remarks in Michigan on July 27, when he said, “Now eggs are much lower than they were when we first started. And that’s true with everything else.” He made similar comments about prices coming down — specifically referencing eggs — in Pennsylvania on June 23 and aboard Air Force One back on Feb. 6.
What Trump is likely referring to is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) findings, released on July 24, which show egg prices down 0.8% between May and June and 27.9% lower last month than in June 2025.
However, it is important context that egg prices spiked to historic highs in early 2025, primarily because of avian flu outbreaks.
The short answer: Only eggs are actually getting cheaper. Everything else is still getting more expensive. The White House did not respond to HuffPost’s request for comment.
Win McNamee via Getty Images
“Food prices going down almost never happens,” Richard Volpe, a professor in the agribusiness department at Cal Poly, told HuffPost. “But it’s worth reiterating that they are going up both faster than normal and faster than they did last year.” Volpe is a former economist at the USDA Economic Research Service.
“Eggs are the headline-grabbing CPI category because they’re ubiquitous — everybody buys eggs; they’re perishable,” Volpe said. “As an overall share of our grocery spending, they’re relatively small.”
Which groceries are getting more expensive?
“Food pricing inflation is increasing, not decreasing,” Volpe said. “And I stress that is the normal way of things.”
The Economic Research Service forecasts that, for the rest of 2026, prices for all groceries will increase around 2.7%, while takeout or restaurant food prices will increase by roughly 3.5%.
According to the July ERS report, costs in eight of the 15 categories it tracks are expected to rise faster in 2026 than the 20-year historical average. Eggs, fats and oils are the only major categories where prices are expected to fall.
These are the food categories most affected by price increases so far this year, with costs continuing to increase for the rest of 2026, according to the ERS forecast:
Beef and veal. Prices were 11.8% higher in June 2026 compared to June 2025. By the end of 2026, costs are predicted to increase by 10.7% since the beginning of the year.
Pork. Costs were roughly 2.4% higher this June than in June 2025 and the total annual increase is expected to be 1.6%.
Fresh vegetables. Prices were 9.9% higher in June 2026 than in June 2025 and the total annual increase is anticipated to be 6.8%.
Fruit. Prices decreased between May and June, but are 2% higher than in June 2025 and are predicted to increase 2% by the end of the year.
In practice, this means that the meat and produce sections of the grocery store are where shoppers are most likely to notice prices climbing, even as the egg aisle offers a rare break.
But eggs make up a small percentage of the average grocery bill. According to the USDA’s Changes in Consumer Price Indexes, for the average grocery basket, eggs are estimated to be about 0.8% important (“relative importance percent” is a term used by the USDA to indicate the percentage of one’s grocery basket cost), compared to 4.7% for beef and 10% for fruits and vegetables. Even a steep drop in egg prices barely moves the needle on a household’s grocery costs.
At the current forecast range of a 2.7% to 3.9% increase in costs in 2026, a household that spent $100 on groceries in 2025 would spend $102.70 to $103.90 for the same basket this year, Volpe said. The USDA has estimated that families of four spend about $1,000 to $1,400 a month on groceries, which would then add up to around $40 more per month.
“If you told folks their internet bill was going up $40 a month, they wouldn’t be happy about it,” Volpe said.
Who will be impacted the most by these price increases?
The average U.S. household spends about 12% of its income on food, but the percentage is higher for lower-income households on food assistance programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or Women, Infants, and Children. Those households spend closer to 20% to 25%, according to Volpe.
“That means that these impacts — in terms of the affordability of food — are way more outsized for these lower-income households,” Volpe said.
So is Trump right that it’s “all coming down?” The cost of beef, produce, sugar and nonalcoholic drinks is still climbing — in some cases, faster than it has in the past.