From her home in Phoenix, Erica Campbell is waiting for a cargo vessel from China to deliver a shipment of thousands of Jesus rattle dolls, tin Easter eggs, religious-themed baby swaddle blankets and 15,000 packages of Jesus Heals bandages.
Ms. Campbell, 36, the owner of Be a Heart, a Catholic goods business, paid the Chinese factories that manufacture the items months ago. The boxes were loaded in a container before President Trump imposed a new 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports on Feb. 1. She said she probably avoided paying an additional duty as a result, but she was worried there would be more U.S. tariffs to come.
“I can’t figure out what is going to happen,” Ms. Campbell said. “I am on high alert.”
Mr. Trump’s targeting of China has thrown millions of small businesses into turmoil. For decades, American firms have designed products in the United States and turned to Chinese factories to produce the goods efficiently and inexpensively. It is how Apple produces iPhones, and how an entrepreneur like Ms. Campbell, a mother of three, operates a business that she said generates $2 million a year in sales from her kitchen.
The New York Times has heard from nearly 100 companies that import from China about how the president’s tariffs were affecting them. They are a cross-section of striving enterprises stitched into the global economy: companies that make greeting cards, board games, outdoor footwear, hangers, digital picture frames, coffee equipment, toys, stained-glass windows and custom electronics.
Several themes emerged. American businesses, not Chinese suppliers, were shouldering the cost of tariffs. Many companies said they would have to raise prices to offset the expense if they had not already. Some spoke of a feeling of business paralysis: They were afraid to make plans amid the unpredictable stream of new tariffs, fearing the risk of moving production out of China since no country seemed immune.
Turning to domestic alternatives was usually not viable because they were more expensive, the quality was inferior and there were fewer options. Finally, completely reinventing their supply chain would be a huge undertaking for the companies, requiring time and expense they cannot easily spare.
At a minimum, business owners are facing a 10 percent cost increase in the goods that they bring in from China — whether components for items assembled in the United States or finished products made in Chinese facilities. They may receive a bill when the goods arrive at the port, or the additional expense may be bundled into shipment costs. Either way, the entrepreneurs said, in many cases it would be money out of their pockets.
And that might be just the beginning.
Mr. Trump promised last week to put another 10 percent tax on all Chinese imports starting on Tuesday, the same day that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are set to begin. The status of both countries as important way stations for Chinese goods and the prospect of retaliation give small-business owners another thing to worry about. Starting March 12, there will be a 25 percent duty on imported steel and aluminum — two metals whose production China dominates. U.S. trade officials are proposing to impose fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, potentially increasing shipping costs from China.
Mr. Trump has said the 10 percent tariff was “an opening salvo.” Last year on the campaign trail, he pledged a tariff of up to 60 percent.
Even at 10 percent, the tariff is a heavy blow to Julianna Rae, a company that sells high-end silk sleepwear, because all of its products are made in China. Based in Burlington, Mass., the company designs silk robes, pajamas and nightgowns that are produced in China. It imports the goods into the United States and sells them on its website and on Amazon.
The company’s proprietors, Bill Keefe and Juli Lee, said they were scrambling to deal with the cost increases that Mr. Trump’s import taxes were imposing on them. They had imported a lot of inventory before the tariffs took effect, in anticipation of seasonal Christmas and Valentine’s Day demand. Ms. Lee is also exploring whether to delay some shipments in hopes that Mr. Trump might reverse course on his tariffs.
Pushing off orders is a risk. Ms. Lee, 56, worries about not having products available for customers. Her Chinese suppliers, already feeling the pinch from a sluggish domestic economy, will be strained from holding inventory for longer periods.
“How much of a bet can you push onto them?” Ms. Lee said, referring to her suppliers, whom she had grown close to after working together for more than a decade. “The uncertainty is really hard on both sides.”
Ultimately, the additional expense might have to be passed on to the consumer. Mr. Keefe, 71, said the price of a popular silk pajama set, which retails for $300, might increase $15.
However, the 20-year-old company has little choice but to stay in China. Silk manufacturing facilities exist in other countries, such as Sri Lanka, India, South Korea and Thailand, but “the best machinery, the best expertise, the ability to produce quality goods at a good price is located in China,” Mr. Keefe said.
For companies open to moving manufacturing to the United States, the challenge is finding a factory.
For 18 years, Chris Miksovsky’s San Francisco-based company, Humangear, has designed its outdoor and travel products in the United States and produced them in Chinese factories.
But remembering the sting of tariffs during the first Trump presidency, Mr. Miksovsky, 56, wanted to see if domestic manufacturing made more sense now. He wanted to start simple with Humangear’s best-selling but easiest-to-make product: a plastic utensil with a fork on one end and a spoon on the other used for camping.
He emailed six companies, four of which never responded. The two that did express an interest asked a lot of questions about product specifications. After Mr. Miksovsky answered every inquiry, one company stopped answering his emails, and the other replied weeks later apologizing but did not provide a quote.
“It’s very fine to say we’re going to put these tariffs in place to bring jobs back to America,” he said. “That assumes that America has the capability to make your product, and, more important, it assumes that it has the interest in making that product.”
Mr. Miksovsky said that he was looking at new manufacturing locations, possibly in Thailand or Vietnam, but that it was hard to predict the countries Mr. Trump would target next.
“Let’s say you spend all this time, effort and money to move your production to another country — who’s to say Trump wakes up and that morning he says, ‘We’re going to put 60 percent tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia, South Africa or pick your country’?” he said.
Shawn Ernst, 39, diversified the suppliers for his family’s appliance repair parts business, Snap Supply, during the first Trump presidency to a place he thought would be safe from the rising costs of a trade war with Beijing: Mexico.
But now the 45-year-old family business, based in St. Charles, Ill., is reeling from the prospect of a double tariff. The company’s repair parts are made of foreign steel and aluminum, so it faces higher costs from a new 25 percent tariff on those materials. On top of that, he may have to start paying an additional tariff when he imports his products from Mexico. He said it was not clear whether he would be taxed twice, but the possibility of it “keeps me up at night.”
Mr. Ernst, who runs the business with his brother, said his Mexican suppliers were willing to absorb a 5 percent cost increase. However, Snap Supply will have to pass on the rest of the cost spike to customers. He said a $23 oven replacement part could soon cost $31. If Snap Supply raises prices too much, he fears his business will become uncompetitive with Chinese companies selling similar parts on Amazon.
He is also worried that the tariffs may force his company to lay off some of his 45 employees, he said.
“We’ve never felt so affected by something a president has done,” he said. “It’s so frustrating to see what is actually happening.”
Ms. Campbell, the seller of religious goods, said she was contemplating passing some of the additional costs from tariffs on to her customers. However, she is reluctant because her products are not essential and her customers are families like hers who are already dealing with higher costs for groceries and gas.
The specter of even higher Chinese import tariffs has her feeling panicked.
“I don’t think people understand what that looks like,” she said. “Not just for my business but in life — how are we going to afford this since everything comes from China?”